By Brett Davis | The Center Square
(The Center Square) – A recent Scott Rasmussen National Survey indicates outright majority support for two of the three initiatives on the ballot in Washington state this fall and a plurality of support for the remaining initiative, which jumps to an overwhelming majority when high fuel prices are considered.
The survey of 800 registered voters was conducted from May 20 through May 23. According to the survey’s methodology, certain quotas were applied, and the sample was lightly weighted by gender, age and race. Likely voters were determined by a screening process within the survey. Those polled identified as 31 percent Republican and 37 percent Democratic.
The survey’s margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
During this year’s session, the Legislature approved three citizen initiatives on police pursuits, a parental bill rights and income taxes.
Initiatives to allow workers to opt out of the state’s new long-term care insurance program, repeal the state’s capital gains tax, and scrap the Climate Commitment Act and its carbon market will be decided by Washington voters in November.
Voters were asked if they favored or opposed Initiative 2124, which would give workers a choice about whether to participate in the WA Cares long-term care program. The question included the statement, “Employees who opt out would no longer have payments deducted from their paychecks, but would be ineligible for the state’s long-term care program.”
Of those who responded, 58 percent indicated they favored I-2124. The results were as follows: 25 percent strongly favored I-2124, and 33 percent somewhat favored it. On the other side, 17 percent somewhat opposed the initiative, 12 percent strongly opposed it, and 14 percent were not sure.
Regarding Initiative 2109 to repeal the state’s capital gains tax – a 7 percent levy on the sale or exchange of long-term capital assets such as stocks, bonds and business interests – 57 percent of respondents said they supported I-2109.
The results were as follows: 31 percent strongly favored I-2109 and 26 percent somewhat favored it, while 17 percent were somewhat opposed and 15 percent were strongly opposed. Those not sure amounted to 12 percent of respondents.
Results changed slightly with a reworded follow-up question: “Capital gains taxes tax income from investments. Because of this, some argue that Washington’s capital gains tax is an unconstitutional income tax. Knowing this, do you favor or oppose repealing the capital gains tax?”
According to respondents, overall favorability went down to 55 percent. The results were as follows: 33 percent strongly favored I-2109, and 22 percent somewhat favored it, while 18 percent somewhat opposed it, 17 percent strongly opposed it, and 9 percent were not sure.
When asked if they favored or opposed Initiative 2117 to repeal the Climate Commitment Act, 45 percent of respondents said they favored repeal. The results are as follows: 21 percent strongly favored I-2117 and 24 percent somewhat favored it. Opposition saw 18 percent somewhat opposed, 21 percent strongly opposed and 16 percent were not sure.
A follow-up question saw a dramatic change in results: “Since the cap and trade program was implemented, Washington’s gas prices have become some of the highest in the country. Currently, gas prices in Washington are about a dollar a gallon higher than the national average of $3.65. If it would significantly reduce gas prices for families, would you favor or oppose repealing Washington’s cap and trade program?”
Based on that query, more than two-thirds of respondents said they were in favor of I-2117. The results are as follows: 45 percent strongly favored I-2117 and 22 percent somewhat favored it, while 13 percent were somewhat opposed and 13 percent were strongly opposed. Those not sure were 7 percent.
Washington’s general election is Nov. 5.
